Will the Las Vegas Aces or Phoenix Mercury prevail in the 2025 WNBA Finals?

Back in the finals for the third time in four years, the Aces are knocking on dynasty’s door — but earning the chance to compete for a third championship was anything but easy.

◀️ How they got here: Eighth in the WNBA standings with a mediocre .500 record at the All-Star Break, the Aces dominated the second half of the season, catapulting themselves into the league’s No. 2 spot behind an impressive 16-game win streak, two victories shy of the W’s all-time record.

• Their first-round series came down to a winner-take-all Game 3 against the No. 7 Seattle Storm, while their five-game semis set against the No. 6 Indiana Fever was equally enthralling, with Vegas advancing after an overtime thriller. This squad is battle tested.

👍 Why they’ll win: Their guard play. Yes, four-time MVP and forward Wilson is one of the greatest women’s basketball players of all time, averaging a double-double and almost three blocks per game in the regular season. She’s all but a guarantee, which is why this series could come down to the productivity of Vegas’ talented guard trio: Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd.

• In fact, when Young scores more than 20 points, a feat she’s accomplished 17 times this season, the Aces have only lost three games.

👀 Underrated player to watch: The aforementioned Loyd. Her output has declined since heading to Vegas as part of a blockbuster deal in January — but you can’t dismiss the 31-year-old. She was the 2023 WNBA scoring leader for a reason and proved that clutch gene is still kicking after knocking down momentum-changing buckets in Vegas’ Game 5 semifinal win.

No Diana Taurasi, no problem for the new-look Mercury, who are headed to their first Final since 2021 despite losing the legendary Taurasi to retirement last season.

◀️ How they got here: Phoenix spent much of the regular season shorthanded with All-Stars Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally missing extended time due to injuries. Finally fully healthy in July, the Mercury added savvy veteran DeWanna Bonner and began to meld, but they were still flying under the radar…until now.

• Phoenix ran the gauntlet, battling the defending champ NY Liberty in the first round and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the second. And we all know what happened next: The Mercury became just the fourth team in league history to eliminate both of the previous year’s finalists. Underdogs? Not here.

👍 Why they’ll win: The authors of multiple double-digit comebacks in the semis, the Mercury are as resilient as they come, in part because of their defense. Led by perennial MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix tops the league’s postseason defensive rating, allowing just 75.6 points per game.

• It’s a recipe for success, so long as they can score the basketball: Phoenix is notoriously streaky from long range, and they often start slow. In their series-clinching Game 4 win, the Mercury missed their first six shots, a stat they won’t want to replicate in the Finals.

👀 Underrated player to watch: The aforementioned Bonner, who knows a thing or two about bringing championships to the desert. The 15-year WNBA vet is the most experienced player in postseason history, competing in a whopping 94 playoff games. She also has a knack for scoring in the game’s biggest moments — they don’t call her “big shot Bonner” for nothing.

At the end of the day, the only numbers that really matter are on the scoreboard — but that doesn’t mean we can’t dig into the digits that could define this series.

🤔 The Aces beat the Mercury in three out of four meetings this season. Their only loss? A game in which the aforementioned Wilson didn’t suit up.

⚔️ The series’ superstars — Vegas’ Wilson and Phoenix’s Thomas — have gone head-to-head 26 times in their careers with the four-time MVP holding a 17-9 edge over The Engine.

💰Two of the four WNBA teams with state-of-the-art practice facilities are now in the Finals: Vegas built a $40M practice facility after their 2022 championship, while Phoenix’s ownership group shelled out $100M for theirs last summer. Coincidence? We think not.

🏆 The Mercury are hooping for history: If they win, they’ll earn a WNBA record fourth title, matching the Lynx, Storm, and now-defunct Houston Comets for most all-time.